--- title: "Temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy" description: "To identify changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting." status: in-progress rmarkdown_html_fragment: true redirect_from: - /topics/covid19/current-patterns-transmission/italy-time-varying-transmission.html update: 2020-03-17 authors: - id: sam_abbott corresponding: true - id: james_munday - id: joel_hellewell - id: robin_thompson - id: nikos_bosse - id: ncov-group - id: stefan_flasche - id: adam_kucharski - id: roz_eggo - id: seb_funk ---
Note: this is preliminary analysis, has not yet been peer-reviewed and is updated daily as new data becomes available. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. A summary of this report can be downloaded here
Aim: To identify changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting.
Latest estimates as of the 2020-03-16
Figure 1: Regional map of the expected change in daily cases based on data from the 2020-03-16.
Figure 2: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval) based on data from the 2020-03-16. Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.
Figure 3: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) based on data from the 2020-03-16 in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
| Country/Region | Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | Expected change in daily cases | Effective reproduction no. | Doubling time (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lombardia | 566 – 2679 | Increasing | 1.1 – 1.8 | 4.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Emilia Romagna | 186 – 792 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.2 | 3.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Piemonte | 148 – 787 | Increasing | 1.5 – 3.1 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Veneto | 130 – 547 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.3 | 3.9 – Cases decreasing |
| P.A. Trento | 51 – 358 | Increasing | 1.9 – 6 | 1.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Marche | 37 – 217 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.3 | 3.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Liguria | 35 – 214 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.8 | 2.4 – 7.1 |
| Lazio | 31 – 180 | Increasing | 1.4 – 3 | 2.2 – 11 |
| Toscana | 28 – 162 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.4 | 3 – 18 |
| Puglia | 21 – 138 | Increasing | 1.6 – 3.8 | 1.8 – 36 |
| Campania | 25 – 135 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.7 | 2.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Valle d’Aosta | 11 – 107 | Increasing | 2 – 6 | 1 – 15 |
| Friuli Venezia Giulia | 11 – 87 | Increasing | 1 – 2.2 | 3.9 – Cases decreasing |
| P.A. Bolzano | 8 – 87 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.9 | 2.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Abruzzo | 9 – 81 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.1 | 1.8 – Cases decreasing |
| Sardegna | 6 – 70 | Increasing | 1.5 – 4.1 | 1.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Sicilia | 7 – 56 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.4 | 2.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Calabria | 4 – 53 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.6 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Umbria | 5 – 49 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.1 | 2.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Molise | 1 – 17 | Unsure | 0.6 – 3.4 | 0.092 – Cases decreasing |
| Basilicata | 1 – 11 | Unsure | 0.5 – 3 | 0.13 – Cases decreasing |
Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time for the 2020-03-16 in each region included in the analysis. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
We used a European line-list that contained the date of symptom onset, date of confirmation and import status (imported or local) for each case [2,7] where available. Daily case counts by date of report and region were extracted from daily datasets made publically available by the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile [1,2].
We used the same approach as in our previous global study of the temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak [6]. However, due to a limited line-list of Italian cases we used a combined linelist of cases from Germany, France, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Spain to estimate the report delay. We could also not account for imported cases (either international or between region) due to a shortage of data. Code and results from this analysis can be found here and here.
Figure 4: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 566 – 2679 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 1.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.041 – 0.14 |
| Doubling time (days) | 4.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.94 |
Table 3: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 5: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 7: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 186 – 792 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.074 – 0.21 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.22 – 0.98 |
Table 4: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 8: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 10: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 148 – 787 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.5 – 3.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.029 – 0.48 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.18 – 0.96 |
Table 5: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 11: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 13: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 130 – 547 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.074 – 0.18 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.18 – 0.89 |
Table 6: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 14: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 16: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 51 – 358 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.9 – 6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.031 – 0.59 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.97 |
Table 7: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 17: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 19: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 37 – 217 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.18 – 0.19 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.98 |
Table 8: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 20: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 22: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 35 – 214 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2.8 |
| Rate of spread | 0.097 – 0.29 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.4 – 7.1 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.58 – 0.99 |
Table 9: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 23: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 25: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 31 – 180 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 3 |
| Rate of spread | 0.066 – 0.31 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.2 – 11 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.31 – 0.98 |
Table 10: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 26: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 28: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 28 – 162 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.4 |
| Rate of spread | 0.039 – 0.23 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3 – 18 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.085 – 0.99 |
Table 11: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 29: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 31: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 21 – 138 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.6 – 3.8 |
| Rate of spread | 0.019 – 0.38 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.8 – 36 |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.07 – 0.97 |
Table 12: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 32: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 34: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 25 – 135 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2.7 |
| Rate of spread | -0.054 – 0.28 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.19 – 0.97 |
Table 13: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 35: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 37: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 11 – 107 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 2 – 6 |
| Rate of spread | 0.047 – 0.66 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1 – 15 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.077 – 0.95 |
Table 14: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 38: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 40: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 11 – 87 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 2.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.3 – 0.18 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.27 – 0.83 |
Table 15: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 41: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 43: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 8 – 87 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.23 – 0.31 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.31 – 0.86 |
Table 16: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 44: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 46: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 9 – 81 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 3.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.041 – 0.38 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.8 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.15 – 0.85 |
Table 17: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 47: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 49: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 6 – 70 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.5 – 4.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.044 – 0.45 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.12 – 0.85 |
Table 18: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 50: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 52: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 7 – 56 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.27 – 0.24 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.33 – 0.86 |
Table 19: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 53: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 55: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 4 – 53 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 3.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.12 – 0.49 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.21 – 0.89 |
Table 20: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 56: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 58: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 5 – 49 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 3.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.19 – 0.3 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.94 |
Table 21: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 59: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 61: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1 – 17 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Unsure |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.6 – 3.4 |
| Rate of spread | -4.8 – 7.6 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.092 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.63 |
Table 22: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 62: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 64: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1 – 11 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Unsure |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.5 – 3 |
| Rate of spread | -4.6 – 5.2 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.13 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.53 |
Table 23: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit for the 2020-03-16. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 65: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Based on data from the 2020-03-16. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
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