Summary
Aim: To identify changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting.
Latest estimates as of the 2020-03-16
Region map
Figure 1: Regional map of the expected change in daily cases based on data from the 2020-03-16.
Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates
Figure 2: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval) based on data from the 2020-03-16. Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.
Reproduction numbers over time in the 5 regions with the most cases currently and nationally
Figure 3: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) based on data from the 2020-03-16 in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
Latest estimates summary table
| Country/Region | Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | Expected change in daily cases | Effective reproduction no. | Doubling time (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lombardia | 566 – 2679 | Increasing | 1.1 – 1.8 | 4.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Emilia Romagna | 186 – 792 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.2 | 3.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Piemonte | 148 – 787 | Increasing | 1.5 – 3.1 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Veneto | 130 – 547 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.3 | 3.9 – Cases decreasing |
| P.A. Trento | 51 – 358 | Increasing | 1.9 – 6 | 1.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Marche | 37 – 217 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.3 | 3.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Liguria | 35 – 214 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.8 | 2.4 – 7.1 |
| Lazio | 31 – 180 | Increasing | 1.4 – 3 | 2.2 – 11 |
| Toscana | 28 – 162 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.4 | 3 – 18 |
| Puglia | 21 – 138 | Increasing | 1.6 – 3.8 | 1.8 – 36 |
| Campania | 25 – 135 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.7 | 2.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Valle d’Aosta | 11 – 107 | Increasing | 2 – 6 | 1 – 15 |
| Friuli Venezia Giulia | 11 – 87 | Increasing | 1 – 2.2 | 3.9 – Cases decreasing |
| P.A. Bolzano | 8 – 87 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.9 | 2.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Abruzzo | 9 – 81 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.1 | 1.8 – Cases decreasing |
| Sardegna | 6 – 70 | Increasing | 1.5 – 4.1 | 1.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Sicilia | 7 – 56 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.4 | 2.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Calabria | 4 – 53 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.6 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Umbria | 5 – 49 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.1 | 2.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Molise | 1 – 17 | Unsure | 0.6 – 3.4 | 0.092 – Cases decreasing |
| Basilicata | 1 – 11 | Unsure | 0.5 – 3 | 0.13 – Cases decreasing |
Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time for the 2020-03-16 in each region included in the analysis. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
